Poll shows Berg ahead of Heitkamp in Senate race
October 19, 2012 at 7:00 pm in Grand Forks Herald
Republican U.S. Rep. Rick Berg is leading Democrat Heidi Heitkamp 50 percent to 40 percent with 10 percent still undecided in North Dakota’s U.S. Senate race, according to a poll conducted for Forum Communications. Continue Reading
Rick Berg is the worst choice you can make. If you want a Fargo millionaire who cares only about his own pockets then vote for Berg. Heidi on the other hand is the candidate that cares about the state and not how much she has in her bank account
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Starting a business out of high school and becoming a millionaire is bad but being a trial lawyer and working for the gov’t in the ND way…
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Starting a business out of HS?? With a guaranteed amount of start up cash (Daddy) it is not hard to be successful. I owned my own business for several years. Somehow I doubt he spent many sleepiness nights wondering if it was going to fly.
I admire entrepreneurs, but I have never viewed him in the category. Face it, the rugged frontiersman scratching a living out of the earth by sheer will & determination he ain’t.
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Do you truely not think that Berg worked hard and had sleepless nights running his business? But you did…it’s the uphill both ways five miles to school theory.
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Actually, he started the business after graduating from NDSU…not high school. Also, Heidi was not handed a J.D. degree. She WORKED for it. And this just in: The Attorney General is ELECTED. She was ELECTED to the job. I’m not sure…but I think Ricky is also currently “working for the govt”. Butchering facts sure comes easily to you.
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I bet Berg was given his degree or bought it but Heidi worked really hard to get hers…okay he started a business out of college. He probably employed people too.
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Lets not forget this is the same lawyer that would be a mouth piece for Obama. This is the same candidate that said that Obama was awesome basically.
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Why this constant lib-bashing of ‘millionaires’? (apart from pure envy)….they didn’t get there by being stupid….and I don’t buy ‘inherited wealth’ being all bad either…JFK, FDR etc
I suspect Heidi is a long ways from needing food stamps.
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It’s not the millionaire part that’s the problem; it’s the part about not caring about anybody but those who are. Envy has absolutely nothing to do with it. The Republican idea that you only have to lift the boats of the top 1% with tax cuts and that will magically take care of the rest of us has been proved to be bad policy. It hasn’t worked that way ever and why the GOP continues to promote that policy is baffling given it has a track record of not working. The Bush tax cuts should have guarenteed jobs for a decade or more but it created a recession instead. Explain that.
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First, the majority of the Bush tax cuts went to the working class and the poor. It was somewhere less than 20% of the cuts that went to those making over $250k. There was just an article in the last two weeks on how large of a tax increase the middle class will see if the Bush tax cuts expire.
Second, the Bush tax cuts were not meant to stimulate the economy. At the time they were enacted, the expected surplus over the next 10 years was $1T. The Bush tax cuts were meant to realign taxation with the budget needs so that there would be no surplus, so that the government would only tax for the amount they needed.
I’d like any explanation on how the Bush tax cuts caused the recession. That is totally illogical.
BTW: I don’t agree with a reduction in ANY tax rates today. Our deficit is huge.
So I don’t agree with either your view of the world or the Republican view of the world. Wish I have someone to vote for. Maybe I’ll just vote for me.
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The Bush tax cut took the lowest rate from 15% to 10% on the first taxable $12,000. That is why the first year we got a $600 check and every year since we have paid $600 less in taxes. Everyone that pays taxes, got a tax cut.
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Mike S. you have my vote. I agree that tax rates don’t need to be cut. In my opininion, the continued misrepresentation that the annual budget deficit and national debt are going to be resolved by imposing higher taxes on a tiny segment of the population is dangerous.
Where you and I may disagree is that while I believe in a progressive tax rate system, I think that virtually every deduction, credit, and tax preference item should be eliminated from the Internal Revenue Code. The Internal Revenue Code has been overtaken with political preferences and social engineering. Like you, I am searching for a candidate that offers a solution; thanks for volunteering to run.
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DC,
Don’t mislead the public. The $1M Mike S. federal program was to lower the local unemployment level and improve the local environment. Are you against a clean environment (and by environment, I do mean my house)? How can you sit back with your comfortable existence and deny employment to those who I’d choose to hire. Plus, it is only 0.0000000001% of the annual Federal budget, so it isn’t like anyone has to really pay for it.
Plus, I think, with all of the crime and illness and despair in the world, we could all use something to brighten our day and I do believe that my day could be brighter if the government would give me $1M every year.
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I think we could double the benefit of Mike S.’s jobs program by giving me $ 1 million as well. This program would have a great name too, the Smartimus Smart Fund. I promise to donate a nice percentage to any politician who is du, I mean benevolent enough to give it to me.
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I think I’m getting played. I’m not sure though.
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Realist, what evidence do you have that the Bush tax cuts started the recession? How can tax cuts that have less than a 5% impact on the annual budget deficit (not the budget as a whole, but the deficit portion) have created a recession? Virtually every economist (liberal and conservative) has placed the cause of the recession on the collapse of inflated housing prices and the repeal of Glass-Steagall that allowed banks to enter into the securities market (including mortgage securities); neither of those two causes have anything to do with the Bush tax cuts.
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That is not what I said. Pumping more money into an economy will increase jobs. This can be done by government spending or by reducing taxes. That was the purpose for the payroll tax reduction of 2% that Obama pushed the last two (or has it been longer) years.
However, there are limits to what you could or should do with stimulus spending, whether it is based on tax cuts and or government spending. We are attempting to create a “fake” good economy that is based on deficit spending in hopes that this will create a “real” good economy.
At some point, we’ve spent ourselves into such a large and deep hole that we can never get out. It is better to have a continued level of pain today then to get even more strongly hooked on the heroin rush of deficit spending.
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Did I just overlook it? What is the margin of error. Reporting a pole without a margin of error is less than helpful.
As for the millionaire question above: there is nothing wrong with millionaires. The problem is with a congress that has 10x – 20x more millionaires per capita than the people they represent.
As anyone who has ever had to maintain a budget will tell you: money matters. It determines not only how big of a house you live in (or if you live in an apartment), but where your kids go to school, what type of nutrition you have, whether or not you see a doctor or stay at home when you are ill, etc etc etc.
If you do not worry about these things in your daily life, you are less likely to consider them when voting.
If 50% of the house and senate are millionaires, that means only 50% of those voting about my future might understand what effect their legislation will have on my life.
Two words: representative government. Not an aristocracy.
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The anchorettes on TV will be in tears again when Heitkamp loses, like they did when she lost her race for governor.
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The PEOPLE of N.D. will be in tears, if they elect this creep. He (himself) declared “my mom DEPENDS on Social Security”. Really ricky…for what….tip money? That comment either makes him a CAD or a LIAR. Additionally, his attempts to distance himself from Goldmark also speaks of his lack of character. How many ways can you call someone a CREEP? He makes my skin crawl with his insincerity. The way he looked into the camera at the end of the last debate and uttered “God bless”. Ironically, the same phrase on the cardboard signs carried by every panhandler in the area. Tap the weak minded, by appearing to be ‘religious’. How sincere. CREEP.
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Petey, people don’t care about the Goldmark thing. He incorrectly handled it but do think people losing their jobs and buying groceries and gas real care about goldmark this and goldmark that?
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Wait a minute. People in North Dakota are “losing their jobs”? Ricky also was quick to let us all know (in that last debate) that he, Jack D., and John H., have CREATED this GREAT ECONOMY we have here in N.D. Interesting that you paint a contrarian picture, of people ‘struggling’ under this shining dome of GOP success, here in N.D. If its that dire here, it’s certainly time for a CHANGE!
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ND has the lowest unemployment, a surplus, better income, lower taxes. Federal gov’t and Obama are a mess with record high high debt of over $16,000,000,000,000, gas doubling, high unemployment, 47,000,000 people on food stamps. The middle class income is down. But Heidi thinks Barrack is amazing.
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“people don’t care about the Goldmark thing. He incorrectly handled it…”
The “incorrectly handled it” part is an understatement. It’s not that I care about Goldmark, or his involvement with Goldmark. It’s that saying he had “no employment, no involvement” when the opposite is so easy to prove strikes me as more than a little odd.
It’s *almost* like watching someone do something with your own eyes, only to have them approach you a few seconds later and listen with your own ears as they tell you the whole thing never happened….
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Berg is up ten and hit the magical 50%. Wow, in two short years the three dem seats look like they will go republican. People are tired of Heidi’s negative ads and no ideas.
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” People are tired of Heidi’s negative ads ”
Actually, I’m kind of tired of The Berg ad in which Heidi’s looking-towards-the-future comment that “Obama is going to be amazing” is run continuously in a loop. The President’s record ASIDE, she was commenting on what she THOUGHT he would or could accomplish. I wonder if Berg has ever said anything in the past that he MIGHT feel differently about now.
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Don’t count those chickens before they hatch, Chins.
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Exactly what “ideas” does Ricky have? I mean, BESIDE his ZERO COMPROMISE pledge to his god, Grover Norquist?? Also, there sure aren’t any NEGATIVE ads out there from Ricky’s side, toward Heidi….right? The one that stands out to me is where they paint her as wanting to END the oil boom in North Dakota. Sounds kind, fair and rational to me.
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I’m amazed the Herald reported this, given that Jacobs just declared the race too close to call and a recount iminent. Congrats on objectivity for a change.
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This race is defined by the outside money far more than by the candidates themselves. The Crossroads PAC is pre-eminent in the propaganda war — and voters should remember who is behind it. In case you didn’t know, it’s Karl ‘the architect” Rove — the guy who brought George W to office.
That crowd want to “take the country back.” Personally, I don’t want to see the country go back to where they had it!
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It works both ways: for every Rove there’s a Soros.
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I could care less about who belongs to which party. I want the person that will do the best for North Dakota. To me this is a job that Heidi would be perfect for. When she ran for governor I didn’t vote for her because I didn’t think it was a good fit for her. However, with her background and busting down on companies like Quill when she was the AG I feel she is a better fit for this position then Rick Berg is.
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Quick point on the poll…did any of you notice it said telephone poll? That means the demographics will skew older and male. As Joe Scarborough said, the polls can’t be trusted this year. They’re all over the place.
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Huh! I live in Minot and I see more Heidi campaign signs than Rick Berg ones. Go figure….
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Devilschild, there are a lot more items in the Federal Budget that I would eliminate before the Mike S. Federal Program. He still has my vote.
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Hey Joe…in all honesty I would if I could vote for Mike S. I have read quite a few of his comments. He is fair and honest. What a rarity these days. You’re not too bad either Joe.
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Read today’s Fargo Forum article. For all of Rep. Berg’s talk about being a businessman, I thought the quote by his long time partner in Goldmark was spot on.
“He’s a sales guy, you know, and sales guys aren’t good managers,” Weiland said.
Yep, politicians are also good salesman but not necessarily good managers.
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Currently all polls are falling towards the repubs on every level. This is Berg’s biggest lead, Cramer is up big, Romney continues to gain. As it gets closer, it looks like 2010 all over.
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TuThe latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in North Dakota finds Berg with 50% support to Heitkamp’s 45%. Five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wordingesdays Rasmussen report ”
Generally undecided go2/1 against the incumbent. Assuming Berg is the incumbent, aconservative assumption as they have both held previous office, a likely but conservative result today is 52% to 48%, still fairly close, but looking good for a new Republican senate seat.
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Again John, what is the margin of error? The smaller the sample the larger the margin. You have to take the margin & subtract it from the leader & add it to the trailing candidate.
Even if the margin was 2.5% (unrealistically small for a state our size) that means a statistical dead heat.
This is not a political stance. It’s math. That is why both major parties have been pouring money & talent into the race lately.
Against all conventional wisdom at the beginning, it remains too close to call
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I thank you for your point, but I worked three years as a statistician for a research corporation prior to graduate school. Rasmussen has a great ability, the best at correlating his projected results to actual results. I will not tip the wine until afte rthe votes are counted but I feel great about the polling! The models used can be doubted because most pollster are using the last election models, but voter this election show a far moremotivated Republic electorate. The college voters are not as inspired from what I have seen, and that is a gigantic problem for Democrats, in my oppinion. They may be hoping in one hand and sh—–g in the other for all I, we know! I will continue to trust the highest rated polling organization!
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FN, here is your answer on margin of error from a Forum article: “The Forum Communications poll was completed by Essman Research, a Des Moines, Iowa, firm that polled residents statewide between Oct. 12 and Oct. 15. It used a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent”.
Berg may be up 14 or up 5 plus.
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Flyingnurse, you are not interpreting margin of error correctly. You are assuming that any number within the margin of error is equally likely. But that is not true. Statistically, if the margin of error is 5%, the actual difference is much more likely to be 0% then 5%.
For example, if candidate A has 45% and candidate B has 55%, and the margin of error is 5% for each, it is very unlikely that they would both be at 50%. It is equally unlikely that the actual split would be 40% and 60%, but that is just as much a possibility as them being tied at 50%.
I don’t want to get too technical here, but with a 5% margin of error, the possible interval of percents for candidate A of 40% to 50% forms a normal distribution (high in the middle and low on the ends) across that interval, with 40% and 50% being much less likely than 45%.
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Dear Rick and Heidi,
Thank you for the flyers you both continue to send me on a daily basis. Neither of you ever send me a flyer that says: ‘Vote for me because………..’. Rick sends me flyers that say ‘Don’t vote for Heidi because…………….’ and Heidi sends me flyers that say ‘Don’t vote for Rick because……………….’. I now have enough flyers to wallpaper the upstairs of my home, the downstairs of my home, my dog’s house, the Alerus, and Altru. I’m thinking by election day I’ll have enough to also wallpaper the Engelstad. Can’t wait to see to see your pictures in the Herald on Arbor Day when you have a photo op and blab about how concerned you are about conservation and the environment. The USPS also thanks you, my mail carrier–not so much.
Sincerely,
Vince
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Correct. I’ve figured out at least three things I can do with all the cardboard flyers and voted last week so it takes no time at all to clean them out of the mail.
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How accuratly do these polls represent the younger voters? Many do not have landlines which is the pollster’s favorite method.
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