by INFORUM
2012 election map precarious for Senate Democrats, particularly after Dakota
January 20, 2011 at 5:31 am in INFORUM
WASHINGTON (AP) Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., is retiring and his party has a big problem in 2012 and beyond. Continue Reading
Republicans have really over-read what the 2010 elections meant…it wasn’t nearly so much who voted as it was who didn’t vote. In 2008, the number of people 18-29 who voted numbered 23 million. In 2010 it was 9 million.
Like or Dislike:
7 
9
That’s just a symptom of there being no presidential race in 2010. In 2008, we had a heated contest between Obama and McCain. More voters turn out across the board when there is a presidential race than an odd year, like 2010.
I’m not saying turnout of young voters didn’t decline — I don’t have those numbers. I’m just saying you cannot compare the 23 million in ’08 to 9 million last year and say younger voters didn’t turn out. It’s apples and oranges.
Like or Dislike:
6 
4
I’d say a 60% reduction in turnout form 2008 to 2010 makes it safe to say that a considerable number of younger voters didn’t turn out in the latter. In fact, that’s exactly what it says.
As for North Dakota in 2008, Obama didn’t win the state but he won the Red River Valley. He took Cass County 53-46 and Grand Forks County 52-47. It was mitigated by losing the western part of the state by double digits.
The Republicans may have a momentary surge, and may stake mid to long term claims on some State’s Senate seats, but nationwide, their core demographic is in decline.
Like or Dislike:
5 
7
I know what you’re trying to say, but you need to think in percentages instead of millions, and then compare that percentage to previous election cycles.
Overall voter turnout dropped from 62% in 2008 to 42% in 2010. This is a reduction of about 33%.
Young voter turnout decreased from 23 million to 9 million. This is a reduction of about 60%.
If the young voters would have came out and voted proportionally the same as they did in 2008, we would have seen about 15 million voters in that age category, not 9. The difference is 6 million.
My point is, the country didn’t lose 14 million young voters in 2010. We lost about 6 million, or a reduction of about 40%, not 60%. This, of course, doesn’t factor in an aging population or an increase in the number of eligible voters due to population growth.
Yes, I agree with you that young voters didn’t turn out in large numbers in 2010. But, you have to look beyond the raw numbers.
Finally, I expect that this decline is typical. Young voters get fired up for presidential elections. College campuses are in a frenzy whenever there is a hot presidential race. Older folks tend to care more about local and state races. During the midterm elections, like in 2010, younger voters don’t get the exposure to the catalysts that make them vote. It has been like that with every presidential election in recent history.
You have to look at that 40% decline in context with other presidential races and midterm elections. I don’t know what the numbers are, but 40% could be lower or higher than average. Either way, I don’t think it says anything about the voter base of Republicans or Democrats. It’s just how the system operates at election time.
Whew.
Like or Dislike:
5 
2
True, but do not forget to factor in the huge anti Bush vote in 2008. A huge majority of the “experts” agree that there was no Republican, short of a reincarnated Lincoln, who had any chance to win that race. The 2008 race was not a mandate for the Democrats, as they have misread it, but rather a huge expression of anger against Bush. That is a big part of the huge win for the Republicans this go round.
As for the term teabagger to describe the tea party activists. It is an infantile expression of hate by the left. I know more people who have moved toward the teaparty because of its use than away. Those who think it was a smart, funny and clever dig in the first place were never likely to support the teaparty platform in the first place, but it is causing the Democrats to loose some support.
Like or Dislike:
1 
1
Or maybe the far left only voted twice this time.
Like or Dislike:
1 
0
Let’s kick’em while they’re down…Let’s invite Sara Palin and the Tea Party movement to represent the Real CONSERVATIVE Republican Party as we prepare for 2012.
Like or Dislike:
3 
12
Yes, please kick us by nominating Sarah Palin to run in 2012. I welcome that kick.
Like or Dislike:
12 
6
We have been told by the Left, to refrain from using terms that might incite someone to do a bad thing, like target, cross-hairs,etc, well this morning Heidi H. on the radio with Joel used the words, “Lock, stock and barrel” ???????? Who does this nonsense apply to?
Like or Dislike:
3 
6
The Democrat party is in an identity crisis and until its members decide the wrest the party away from the radical special interest which now infests it, don’t expect to see a turn around anytime soon. The party looks entirely different than it did 30 years ago when the working middle class were it’s main core. Out of control spending, passing massive new entitlements which we cannot afford, siding with radical organizations over the common good and the overall arrogance of it’s leadership has turned the party away from those who once were it’s center. My guess is that the dem leadership won’t learn from their mistakes and will lose the Senate and Presidency next time around. Maybe then they can have a tea party movement of their own and bring the party back to its roots. People vote issues, always have, and when your standing in the unemployment line or filling your car with 4 dollar gas, party loyalty is the last thing on your mind.
Like or Dislike:
4 
4
And the radical special interest groups are doing their best to take over the Republican party as well. Whichever party looks the least crazy tends to win the central votes and therefore the election.
P.S. I hope the terms “take-over” and “win” were not to strong or harsh for the mental health of the inform community in general.
,
Like or Dislike:
7 
1
The left in this country still has not gotten the point of the 2010 election: they stopped listening to the people. They will lose again in 2012 if they don’t come to that realization. I hope they never get a clue.
Like or Dislike:
4 
6